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HURRICANE DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL0599
1500Z FRI AUG 27 1999
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE ADJUSTED NORTHWARD AS THE HURRICANE MOVES
PARALLEL TO THE EAST FLORIDA COAST.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND FOR
ANDROS ISLAND AND FOR NEW PROVIDENCE.  HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE STILL
IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ELEUTHERA
...THE ABACOS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS.
 
RESIDENTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DENNIS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N  75.9W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT
64 KT....... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW
50 KT....... 65NE  25SE   0SW  20NW
34 KT.......125NE 100SE   0SW 125NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 125SE  60SW 150NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N  75.9W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N  75.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 26.2N  76.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS  95 KT
64 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW
50 KT... 65NE  25SE   0SW  20NW
34 KT...125NE 100SE   0SW 125NW
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 27.0N  78.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW
50 KT... 65NE  50SE  25SW  60NW
34 KT...125NE 100SE  50SW 125NW
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 28.0N  79.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  75NW
34 KT...125NE 125SE  75SW 125NW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N  75.9W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 29.5N  79.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  75NW
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 33.0N  79.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  75NW
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT75 KNHC.
 
 
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