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HURRICANE DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL0599
0300Z SUN AUG 29 1999
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FROM NORTH OF
SAVANNAH GEORGIA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. A PORTION OF THE
WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE
WARNING SUNDAY MORNING.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH.
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA
BEACH.
 
IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO SHIFT THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS NORTHWARD AS
DENNIS MOVES ON A TRACK PARALLEL TO THE UNITED STATES SOUTHEAST
COAST.  COASTAL INTERESTS IN GEORGIA...SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DENNIS.
 
RESIDENTS IN THE ABACOS AND GRAND BAHAMAS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT
UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N  77.8W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  969 MB
EYE DIAMETER  35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT
64 KT....... 50NE  25SE  25SW  25NW
50 KT.......100NE 100SE  75SW  75NW
34 KT.......140NE 125SE 100SW 120NW
12 FT SEAS..175NE 150SE 125SW 220NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N  77.8W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N  77.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.6N  78.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 110 KT
64 KT... 50NE  25SE  25SW  25NW
50 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW  75NW
34 KT...140NE 125SE 100SW 120NW
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 30.9N  78.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT
64 KT... 50NE  25SE  25SW  25NW
50 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW  75NW
34 KT...140NE 125SE 100SW 120NW
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 32.3N  78.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT
64 KT... 50NE  25SE  25SW  25NW
50 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW  75NW
34 KT...140NE 125SE 100SW 120NW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N  77.8W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 33.5N  78.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT
50 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW  75NW
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 35.0N  76.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT
50 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW  75NW
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z
 
GUINEY
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT75 KNHC.
 
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