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TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1399
1500Z WED OCT 13 1999

...WORD STORM MISSING 

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE
GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...HAVANA...CIUDAD HAVANA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N  83.5W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT  7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT
34 KT....... 75NE  75SE  25SW  25NW
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  75SE  25SW  25NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N  83.5W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  83.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.0N  84.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  25SW  25NW
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.0N  84.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW
34 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW  75NW
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 21.5N  84.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N  83.5W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 23.0N  84.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 26.0N  83.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
 
 
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