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HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1399
0900Z THU OCT 14 1999

...CORRECTION FOR 12-HR AND 24-HR INTENSITY FORECAST...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA INCLUDING THE
PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...HAVANA...CIUDAD HAVANA...MATANZAS AND
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA
KEYS WEST OF CRAIG KEY AND FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING.
 
INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES...OR WARNINGS...
MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N  83.7W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT  6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW
34 KT.......100NE  90SE   0SW  60NW
12 FT SEAS..100NE  90SE   0SW  60NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N  83.7W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  83.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 22.5N  83.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT
64 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  40NW
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  75NW
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.7N  83.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  90 KT
64 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  30SW  50NW
34 KT...100NE 100SE  50SW  75NW
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 24.9N  83.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS  95 KT
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  50NW
34 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW  75NW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N  83.7W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 26.0N  83.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS  95 KT
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  50NW
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 28.5N  82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  50NW
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
 
GUINEY
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
 
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