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HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1399
1500Z THU OCT 14 1999
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE DRY TORTUGAS.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF CRAIG KEY.  A
HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA
KEYS WEST OF CRAIG KEY.
 
AT 11 AM EST...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO BOCA GRANDE.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA INCLUDING THE
PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...HAVANA...CIUDAD HAVANA...MATANZAS AND
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES...OR WARNINGS...
MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N  83.4W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT NEARLY STATIONARY
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW
50 KT....... 25NE  25SE   0SW  20NW
34 KT.......100NE 100SE  25SW  25NW
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE  25SW  25NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N  83.4W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N  83.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.7N  83.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW
34 KT...100NE 100SE  25SW  25NW
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.0N  83.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT
64 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  25SW  50NW
34 KT...100NE 100SE  50SW  75NW
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 25.5N  83.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS  95 KT
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  30SW  50NW
34 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW  75NW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N  83.4W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 27.0N  83.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS  95 KT
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  50NW
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 29.5N  82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  50NW
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
 
 
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