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HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1399
2100Z SAT OCT 16 1999
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED AND
NOW EXTENDS FROM SAVANNAH GEORGIA TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FROM NORTH OF
CAPE HATTERAS TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING
ALBEMARLE SOUND.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
SOUTH OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
TO VERO BEACH FLORIDA.
 
ALL INTEREST ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N  80.0W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR   0 DEGREES AT  9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
EYE DIAMETER  45 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT
64 KT....... 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW
50 KT.......120NE 120SE   0SW  75NW
34 KT.......220NE 180SE  75SW 100NW
12 FT SEAS..220NE 180SE  75SW 100NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N  80.0W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N  79.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 30.4N  79.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT
64 KT... 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW
50 KT...120NE 120SE   0SW  75NW
34 KT...220NE 180SE  75SW 100NW
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.6N  79.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT
64 KT... 90NE  60SE   0SW  60NW
50 KT...120NE 120SE  50SW  75NW
34 KT...220NE 180SE  75SW 100NW
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 36.4N  75.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT
64 KT... 90NE  60SE   0SW  60NW
50 KT...120NE 120SE  50SW  75NW
34 KT...220NE 180SE  75SW 100NW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N  80.0W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 41.5N  68.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT
50 KT... 75NE  75SE   0SW   0NW
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 54.0N  43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
 
FRANKLIN
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
 
 
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