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TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1499
0900Z MON OCT 18 1999
 
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF BARBADOS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.  ALL INTERESTS IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING
SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N  53.2W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT
34 KT....... 45NE   0SE   0SW  45NW
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE   0SE   0SW  45NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N  53.2W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N  52.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 10.6N  54.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT
34 KT... 45NE   0SE   0SW  45NW
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 11.2N  56.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW
34 KT... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 11.9N  58.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.4N  53.2W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 13.0N  60.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 15.5N  64.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z
 
GUINEY
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT74 KNHC.
 
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