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TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1499
1500Z MON OCT 18 1999
 
...CORRECTION TO INCLUDE THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR TRINIDAD AND
TOBAGO...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO BY THE
GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO EFFECTIVE AT 8 AM...1200 UTC THIS
MORNING...

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.  ALL INTERESTS IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING
SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N  54.3W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N  54.3W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N  53.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 11.0N  55.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 11.8N  57.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW
34 KT... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 12.6N  59.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.7N  54.3W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 14.0N  61.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 16.5N  65.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS  95 KT
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
FRANKLIN
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT74 KNHC.
 
 
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