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HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1499
1500Z TUE OCT 19 1999
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS OF THE
CARIBBEAN HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR DOMINICA...MONTSERRAT
... ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...NEVIS...ST. KITTS...ST EUSTATIUS...
SABA...DUTCH ST MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE...ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH INSTEAD OF A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND SURROUNDING
ISLANDS...FRENCH ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.  THE GOVERNMENT OF
FRANCE ISSUES A HURRICANE WARNING SIX TO NINE HOURS IN ADVANCE.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR ST.
LUCIA AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS.  A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE
BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR PUERTO RICO.
 
INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JOSE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N  58.5W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW
50 KT....... 40NE  20SE   0SW  40NW
34 KT.......100NE 100SE  30SW  75NW
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE  30SW  75NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N  58.5W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N  58.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.0N  60.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT
64 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW
34 KT...100NE 100SE  30SW  75NW
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.2N  61.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW
34 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW 100NW
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.5N  64.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N  58.5W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 18.5N  66.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 21.5N  70.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT74 KNHC.
 
 
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