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HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1499
0300Z WED OCT 20 1999
 
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED
FOR ST. LUCIA AND BARBADOS.
 
EARLIER...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
GUADELOUPE AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...DOMINICA...GUADELOUPE
AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
NEVIS...ST. KITTS...ST EUSTATIUS...SABA...DUTCH ST MAARTEN...
ANGUILLA...THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE...FRENCH ST.
MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.
 
INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JOSE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  60.0W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW
34 KT.......100NE 100SE  30SW  75NW
12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE  30SW 100NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  60.0W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  59.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.7N  61.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT
64 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW
34 KT...100NE 100SE  30SW  75NW
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.8N  63.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS  95 KT
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW
34 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW 100NW
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.8N  65.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N  60.0W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 20.3N  67.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 23.5N  69.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
 
GUINEY
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT74 KNHC.
 
 
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