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HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1499
0900Z THU OCT 21 1999
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT...BARBUDA...
NEVIS...ST. KITTS...ANGUILLA...AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMY.
 
AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR DUTCH ST.
MAARTEN...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND SABA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.
 
ALL REMAINING WARNINGS WILL BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N  64.5W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT
64 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW
50 KT....... 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  30SW  75NW
12 FT SEAS..180NE 100SE  30SW 100NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N  64.5W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N  63.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.5N  65.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW
50 KT... 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW
34 KT...120NE 100SE  30SW  75NW
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.4N  67.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  40SW  75NW
34 KT...120NE 120SE  75SW 120NW
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.8N  67.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  40SW  75NW
34 KT...120NE 120SE  75SW 120NW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N  64.5W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 28.0N  67.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  40SW  75NW
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 41.0N  61.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  40SW  75NW
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
 
FRANKLIN
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT74 KNHC.
 
 
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