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HURRICANE LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1699
0300Z WED NOV 17 1999
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.  A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...ST. EUSTATIUS...SABA...ANGUILLA...NEVIS...
AND ST. KITTS.
 
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR MONTSERRAT...BARBUDA...AND ANTIGUA.
 
THE FRENCH GOVERNMENT MAY ISSUE A HURRICANE WATCH OR WARNING LATER
TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS UNDER THEIR RESPONSIBILITY.
 
ALL WARNINGS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ARE DISCONTINUED.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  67.0W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST OR  70 DEGREES AT 14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  958 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT
64 KT....... 25NE  50SE  50SW  25NW
50 KT....... 60NE  75SE  75SW  40NW
34 KT.......125NE 150SE 125SW  75NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 200SW 100NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  67.0W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  67.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.5N  65.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT
64 KT... 25NE  50SE  50SW  25NW
50 KT... 60NE  75SE  75SW  40NW
34 KT...125NE 150SE 125SW  75NW
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.9N  63.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT
64 KT... 25NE  50SE  50SW  25NW
50 KT... 60NE  75SE  75SW  40NW
34 KT...125NE 150SE 125SW  75NW
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.4N  61.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT
64 KT... 25NE  50SE  50SW  25NW
50 KT... 60NE  75SE  75SW  40NW
34 KT...125NE 150SE 125SW  75NW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N  67.0W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 21.5N  60.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS  95 KT
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  75NW
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 24.0N  58.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  75NW
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z
 
PASCH
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
 
 
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