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HURRICANE LENNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1699
1500Z THU NOV 18 1999
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MAINLAND PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMEY ...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS ...ST.KITTS...
NEVIS...MONTSERRAT ...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N  63.6W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT NEARLY STATIONARY
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  952 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT
64 KT....... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW
50 KT....... 75NE 105SE  75SW  60NW
34 KT.......100NE 160SE 135SW  75NW
12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 300SW 150NW
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N  63.6W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N  63.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.0N  63.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW
50 KT... 75NE 105SE  75SW  60NW
34 KT...100NE 160SE 135SW  70NW
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.5N  62.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW
50 KT... 75NE 105SE  75SW  75NW
34 KT...135NE 160SE 135SW 135NW
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.3N  61.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW
50 KT... 75NE 105SE  75SW  75NW
34 KT...135NE 160SE 135SW 135NW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N  63.6W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 20.0N  61.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT
50 KT... 75NE 105SE  75SW  75NW
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 22.0N  59.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT
50 KT... 75NE 105SE  75SW  75NW
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
 
 
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