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ZCZC MIASPFAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GERT PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM AST TUE SEP 14 1999 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST FRI SEP 17 1999 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 18.0N 51.5W 54 X X X 54 TNCM 181N 631W X X X 7 7 18.6N 53.8W 5 27 1 X 33 TISX 177N 648W X X X 3 3 19.5N 56.0W X 13 10 1 24 TIST 183N 650W X X X 3 3 TDPR 153N 614W X X X 2 2 TJSJ 184N 661W X X X 2 2 TFFR 163N 615W X X X 5 5 ST CROIX VI X X X 3 3 TAPA 171N 618W X X 1 5 6 ST THOMAS VI X X X 3 3 TKPK 173N 627W X X X 6 6 SAN JUAN PR X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU C FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU D FROM 8PM THU TO 8PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FRANKLIN NNNN