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HURRICANE BRET INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
6 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 1999
 
...BRET BECOMES A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR
SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...MOVING FASTER....

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA MEXICO NORTHWARD
TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS.  THESE WARNINGS MAY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD
TONIGHT.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS.  A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA SOUTHWARD TO TUXPAN MEXICO.
 
RADAR FROM BROWNSVILLE AND DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
INDICATE THAT AT 6 PM CDT...2300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE BRET WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  95.1 WEST OR ABOUT 175
MILES...280 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
 
BRET HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
TOWARD THE NORTH ABOUT 14 MPH...23 KM/HR.   HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE
TEMPORARY AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND THEN WEST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THIS MAKES BRET A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE ON
THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.
 
LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS
963 MB...28.44 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH
OF THE HURRICANE.  EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE
SPEED OF MOTION OF THE HURRICANE.

ONSHORE WINDS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE
COAST ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM SURGE COASTAL FLOODING OF UP TO
8 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS.

REPEATING THE 6 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N... 95.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 120 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 963 MB.
 
ANOTHER INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY
AT 10 PM CDT.
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
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