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BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  18A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT SUN OCT 17 1999

...IRENE TURNS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS
WITH DANGEROUS RAINS THAT WILL PRODUCE SERIOUS FLOODING...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAVANNAH GEORGIA TO CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS TO
THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING ALBEMARLE SOUND.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
TO FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA.
 
ALL INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
 
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. 
 
IRENE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH.  A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.  THE CENTER OF IRENE IS LIKELY TO TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE
COAST FROM CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA EASTWARD TO CAPE HATTERAS.  

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. 
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA UP TO 90 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 255 MILES.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  978 MB...28.88 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES IN BAYS...IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.  A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS.
 
ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH IRENE.  GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CAROLINA...THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE
SERIOUS FLOODING.  SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICES.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...32.1 N... 79.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 978 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.
 
FRANKLIN
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
 
 
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