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HURRICANE JOSE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM AST WED OCT 20 1999

...EYE OF HURRICANE JOSE MOVED OVER ANTIGUA WITH 100 MPH WIND
GUSTS...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...
BARBUDA... NEVIS...ST. KITTS...ST EUSTATIUS...SABA...DUTCH ST
MAARTEN...ANGUILLA... THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMY AND DESIRADE.  THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR DESIRADE WILL
LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED SOON.
  
THE EYE OF HURRICANE JOSE RECENTLY MOVED OVER ANTIGUA AND AT 2 PM
AST...1800Z...WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  62.0
ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ST. MAARTEN IN THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
 
JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE CORE OF JOSE OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY. WEATHER SHOULD
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES.    

A HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT AND ITS EFFECTS COVER A LARGE AREA. DO
NOT FOCUS ONLY ON THE TRACK. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...IN A SMALL
AREA NEAR THE CENTER...WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER ISLANDS
WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.05 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF
JOSE.  HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES. 
 
REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...17.2 N... 62.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.
 
AVILA
 
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