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HURRICANE JOSE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  15A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM AST THU OCT 21 1999
 
...JOSE BARELY A HURRICANE...COULD BE DOWNGRADED LATER THIS
MORNING...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT...BARBUDA...
NEVIS...ST. KITTS...ANGUILLA...AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMY. A PORTION OF THESE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
THIS MORNING.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
 
AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE
WAS LOCATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE  64.7 WEST VERY NEAR ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.
 
JOSE HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...
22 KM/HR BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE BARELY 75 MPH...120KM/HR...IN A SMALL
AREA TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER ISLANDS WITH ELEVATED TERRAIN.  JOSE COULD BE DOWNGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM STATUS LATER THIS MORNING.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  35 MILES... 55 KM...
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH JOSE.  HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
 
TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.
 
REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...18.4 N... 64.7 W.  MOVEMENT
BETWEEN WEST AND WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.
 
AVILA
 
 
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