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TROPICAL STORM JOSE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  16A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM AST THU OCT 21 1999

...CENTER OF JOSE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WATER JUST NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO...HEAVIEST WEATHER OFFSHORE... 
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH AND U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
 
AT 2 PM AST...1500Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  65.4 WEST
OR ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...EAST NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
 
JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.  ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF JOSE WILL BE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF AND NEAR NORTHEASTERN
PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE HEAVIEST WEATHER
OFFSHORE.   
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  ST. THOMAS RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 44 MPH...71 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 52 MPH...83
KM/HR.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH JOSE.  HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
 
TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...18.7 N... 65.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR  9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.
 
AVILA
 
 
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