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HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM AST TUE NOV 16 1999

...COR FOR TIME

...RAINBANDS SPREADING OVER PUERTO RICO...WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ISLANDS BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS...DUTCH ST.
MAARTEN...ST. EUSTATIUS...SABA...AND FOR ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST.
KITTS...MONTSERRAT...BARBUDA AND ANTIGUA.  HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR
THESE ISLANDS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
 
THE FRENCH GOVERNMENT MAY ISSUE A HURRICANE WATCH LATER TODAY FOR
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS UNDER THEIR RESPONSIBILITY.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO BEATA TO CABO ENGANO.
 
AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  69.1 WEST OR ABOUT 300
MILES...485 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
 
LENNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 16 MPH ...26 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THIS
TRACK...LENNY WILL BE HEADING FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS.  

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRONGER WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST
FACING HARBORS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.
 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT A FEW HOURS AGO WAS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.  A NEW PLANE
WILL BE IN THE AREA SHORTLY.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS OVER WATER AT THIS TIME BUT WILL LIKELY BE
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY. SAN
JUAN DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS BANDS OF HEAVY SQUALLS ALREADY SPREADING
OVER PUERTO RICO. 

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER IN
THE WARNED AREA.
 
REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...15.4 N... 69.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 16 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 973 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.
 
AVILA
 
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