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HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  15A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 AM AST WED NOV 17 1999
                                    
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY HEADED FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN...STRONG RAIN BANDS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.  A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
 
AT 1 AM AST...0500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  66.7 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES...250
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
 
LENNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR.  A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY.  ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING THE WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY.  WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN OVER THE
WARNING AREA THIS MORNING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LENNY IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  STRONGER WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED
IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS AND OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING
HARBORS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE.  THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WARNING AREA.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER IN
THE WARNED AREA.
 
REPEATING THE 1 AM AST POSITION...16.3 N... 66.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 958 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 3 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
AST.
 
PASCH
 
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