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HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM AST FRI NOV 19 1999

...LENNY WEAKENING FAST...BARELY A HURRICANE...PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAINS....
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...
FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND
BARBUDA.  IF LENNY CONTINUES WEAKENING...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
SOME OF THESE ISLANDS WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
OR DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. 
 
AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE LENNY
HAS BECOME BROAD AND DIFFUSE AND IT WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  62.5 WEST.  THIS POSITION IS
BETWEEN ST. KITTS AND ANTIGUA.
 
LENNY HAS BEEN MEANDERING OR MOVING ERRATICALLY DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS BUT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 3
MPH...6 KM/HR LATER TODAY. 
 
LENNY HAS BEEN INTERACTING WITH SOME OF THE ISLANDS AND HAS
WEAKENED.   MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR  75
MPH...120 KM/HR...OVER A SMALL AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. 
AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA SOON TO DETERMINE THE
INTENSITY OF LENNY.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  987 MB...29.14 INCHES.  
 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS...MAY OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
HURRICANE.  THESE RAINS CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
DANGEROUS LARGE BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.
 
REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...17.5 N... 62.5 W.  MOVEMENT
DRIFTING EASTWARD.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.  MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.
 
AVILA
 
 
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