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BULLETIN
HURRICANE BRET ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT SUN AUG 22 1999

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE BRET GETTING CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
COAST...
 
HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA MEXICO TO PORT
OCONNOR TEXAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE
IN EFFECT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM EAST OF PORT OCONNOR TO
FREEPORT.
 
AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WATCH SOUTH OF TAMPICO.  A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM LA PESCA SOUTHWARD TO TAMPICO MEXICO.
 
AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BRET WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  95.7 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES EAST
OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
 
BRET IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  BRET IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
LIKELY TODAY.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 100 MILES...160 KM.
 
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY MEASURED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH
OF THE HURRICANE.  EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE
SPEED OF MOTION OF THE HURRICANE.
 
ONSHORE WINDS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE
COAST ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM SURGE COASTAL FLOODING OF UP TO
10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH HIGHER
VALUES AT THE HEADS OF BAYS.
 
FOR LOCAL INFORMATION...SEE STATEMENTS BEING ISSUED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN YOUR AREA.
 
REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...26.0 N... 95.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.
 
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 6 AM CDT AND 8 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT.

PASCH
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
 
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