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BULLETIN
HURRICANE BRET ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SUN AUG 22 1999
 
...DANGEROUS BRET BEARING DOWN ON SOUTH TEXAS COAST...ALL
PREPARATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION...

HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA MEXICO TO PORT
OCONNOR TEXAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH
REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM EAST OF PORT OCONNOR TO
FREEPORT.  AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH SOUTH OF LA PESCA.
 
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BRET WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  96.5 WEST.  THIS POSITION IS ABOUT
70 MILES NORTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE AND ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.
 
BRET IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATION IN WIND SPEED IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL.
BRET IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  944 MB...27.88 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH
OF THE HURRICANE.  EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE
SPEED OF MOTION OF THE HURRICANE.  BANDS OF RAIN ARE NOW MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA.
 
ONSHORE WINDS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE
COAST ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM SURGE COASTAL FLOODING OF UP TO
10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH HIGHER
VALUES AT THE HEADS OF BAYS.
 
THERE IS A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOS OVER THE MID TEXAS COASTAL
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT.
 
FOR LOCAL INFORMATION...SEE STATEMENTS BEING ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN YOUR AREA.
 
REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...26.5 N... 96.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB.
 
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT NOON CDT AND 2 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.
 
LAWRENCE
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
  
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