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HURRICANE GERT ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU SEP 16 1999

...SEVERE HURRICANE GERT STILL MOVING WESTWARD...BUT FORECAST TO
TURN NORTHWEST OVER OPEN WATERS ON FRIDAY...
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  52.9 WEST OR ABOUT 575 MILES...
900 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
 
GERT HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...
15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.  ON THIS TRACK...GERT WILL
BE MOVING WELL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ANOTHER AIR FORCE PLANE WILL CHECK GERT LATER TODAY. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  941 MB...27.79 INCHES.
 
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...18.3 N... 52.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR  9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 941 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT74 KNHC.
 
 
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