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ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999 ...WEAK BUT WET HARVEY EXPECTED TO DRENCH PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AS IT CROSSES THE PENINSULA TODAY. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD AND ALONG THE EAST FLORIDA COAST FROM JUST NORTH OF JUPITER. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE IS ALSO DISCONTINUED. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS AND NORTHWARD TO JUPITER ALONG THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACOS IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH AND A TURN TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL BE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN SQUALLS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. HARVEY IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SAND KEY RECENTLY REPORTED GUSTS TO 46 MPH AND SOMBRERO KEY GUSTS TO 47 MPH. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...AND UP TO 6 FEET AT THE HEADS OF BAYS...ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE PATH OF HARVEY. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS. A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...25.8 N... 82.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST SOUTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. AVILA STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT75 KNHC. NNNN