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TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 13 1999

...IRENE MAY REACH WESTERN CUBA AS A HURRICANE...A THREAT TO
FLORIDA...
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...HAVANA...
CIUDAD HAVANA...MATANZAS AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF CRAIG KEY INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS.
  
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  83.7 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES
...355 KM...SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA.
 
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK IRENE SHOULD CROSS WESTERN CUBA ON THURSDAY. 
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR  50 MPH...85 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE CROSSING WESTERN
CUBA.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
 
HEAVY RAINS...6 TO 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IRENE.
 
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...20.2 N... 83.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR  9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.  
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
 
 
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