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HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU OCT 14 1999

...SLOWLY-MOVING IRENE DRENCHING CUBA...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING
NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA... 
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE DRY TORTUGAS.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF CRAIG KEY.  A
HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA
KEYS WEST OF CRAIG KEY.
 
AT 11 AM EST...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO BOCA GRANDE.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA INCLUDING THE
PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...HAVANA...CIUDAD HAVANA...MATANZAS AND
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES...OR WARNINGS...
MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED BY
CUBAN AND KEY WEST RADARS NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  83.4
WEST...VERY NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND ABOUT 120
MILES...195 KM...SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA.
 
IRENE HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR...LATER TODAY. ON
THIS TRACK IRENE WILL AFFECTING CUBA FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
 
COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA EAST OF
WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.  
 
HEAVY RAINS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH IRENE.
 
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...21.7 N... 83.4 W.  MOVEMENT
NEARLY STATIONARY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH.  MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
 
 
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