HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU OCT 14 1999

...IRENE NEAR HAVANA CUBA...HEADING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BOCA GRANDE.
THIS INCLUDES ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE DRY TORTUGAS.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM FLORIDA CITY TO JUPITER INLET ON THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS
ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTH OF BOCA GRANDE TO LONGBOAT KEY.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA INCLUDING THE
PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...HAVANA...CIUDAD HAVANA...MATANZAS AND
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.
 
RADARS FROM KEY WEST AND CUBA INDICATE THAT AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH
...LONGITUDE  82.3 WEST...JUST EAST OF THE CITY OF HAVANA CUBA. 
THIS IS ABOUT 120 MILES...195 KM...SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST
FLORIDA.
 
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR BUT
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.  ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS ON
FRIDAY.   
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...IN A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. 
HAVANA REPORTED GUSTS TO 56 MPH...90 KPH...A FEW HOURS AGO. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
 
COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA EAST OF
WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.  A STORM SURGE OF 5 TO 7 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY.
 
HEAVY RAINS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH IRENE.
 
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...22.9 N... 82.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR  7 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
75 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
 
 
NNNN