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HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 1999

...IRENE HEADED FOR THE CAROLINAS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
NEARING THE GEORGIA COAST....
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SAVANNAH GEORGIA TO CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS REPLACED BY A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING ALBEMARLE SOUND.
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
SOUTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH FLORIDA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW
IN EFFECT SOUTH OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH FLORIDA.
 
ALL INTEREST ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.
 
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AT 913 PM
A WIND GUST TO 77 MPH WAS OBSERVED AT ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA. 
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 255 MILES.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
 
A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH IRENE.  GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CAROLINA...EVEN MODEST ADDITIONAL RAINS COULD
PRODUCE SERIOUS FLOODING.  SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
 
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...29.9 N... 79.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT...SUNDAY.
 
PASCH
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
 
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