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HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 17 1999

...IRENE APPROACHING THE CAROLINAS WITH DANGEROUS RAINS THAT WILL
PRODUCE SERIOUS FLOODING...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAVANNAH GEORGIA TO CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS TO
THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING ALBEMARLE SOUND.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED
SOUTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT SOUTH OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA.
 
ALL INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  79.8 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. 
 
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  THE CENTER
OF IRENE IS LIKELY TO TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST FROM CENTRAL
SOUTH CAROLINA EASTWARD TO CAPE HATTERAS.  

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. 
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COVER A SMALL AREA ROUGHLY 90 MILES NORTH AND
EAST OF THE CENTER.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 255 MILES.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  982 MB...29.00 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES IN BAYS...IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.  A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS.
 
ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH IRENE.  GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CAROLINA...EVEN MODEST ADDITIONAL RAINS COULD
PRODUCE SERIOUS FLOODING.  SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
 
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...31.7 N... 79.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.
 
FRANKLIN
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
 
 
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