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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SUN OCT 17 1999

...A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...A
HURRICANE WATCH MAYBE REQUIRED TONIGHT....

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT
HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD FOR SEVERAL DAYS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN.
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  51.5
WEST OR ABOUT 600 MILES...975 KM...EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. 
  
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THE DEPRESSION MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR MONDAY
AND COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN A DAY OR TWO.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. 
 
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...10.0 N... 51.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. 
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT74 KNHC.
 
 
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