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HURRICANE JOSE ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST WED OCT 20 1999

...STRENGTHENING JOSE MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
ALL PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...DOMINICA...GUADELOUPE
AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
NEVIS...ST. KITTS...ST EUSTATIUS...SABA...DUTCH ST MAARTEN...
ANGUILLA...THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE...FRENCH ST.
MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.
 
INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JOSE.
 
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  60.7 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...100
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUADELOUPE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS IS
ALSO ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.
 
JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TODAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE AS THE CENTER APPROACHES.

A HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT AND ITS EFFECTS COVER A LARGE AREA.
DO NOT FOCUS ONLY ON THE TRACK.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR  90 MPH...150
KM/HR...MAINLY OVER A SMALL AREA NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER ISLANDS WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  SOME
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  977 MB...28.85 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF
JOSE.  HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
 
TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.
 
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...16.7 N... 60.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 977 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
AST.
 
BEVEN
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT74 KNHC.
 
 
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