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BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOSE ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED OCT 20 1999

...COR TO REMOVE DOMINICA FROM THE WARNING SECTION

...INTENSE CORE OF HURRICANE JOSE PASSING NEAR OR OVER OF ANTIGUA...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...
BARBUDA... NEVIS...ST. KITTS...ST EUSTATIUS...SABA...DUTCH ST
MAARTEN...ANGUILLA... THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMY AND DESIRADE.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR DOMINICA HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
  
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  61.5 WEST VERY CLOSE TO ANTIGUA IN
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
 
JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE CORE OF JOSE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY. WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS
THE HURRICANE APPROACHES.    

A HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT AND ITS EFFECTS COVER A LARGE AREA. DO
NOT FOCUS ONLY ON THE TRACK. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...IN A SMALL
AREA NEAR THE CENTER...WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER ISLANDS
WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS  978 MB...28.88 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF
JOSE.  HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES. 
 
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...17.1 N... 61.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 978 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT74 KNHC.
 
 
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