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HURRICANE JOSE ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST WED OCT 20 1999

...JOSE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH 100 MPH
WINDS... 
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT...BARBUDA...
NEVIS...ST. KITTS...ST EUSTATIUS...SABA...DUTCH ST MAARTEN...
ANGUILLA... THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMY.
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ANTIGUA AND
DESIRADE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  62.4 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...90
KM...SOUTHEAST OF ST. MAARTEN IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  
 
JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE CORE OF JOSE OVER THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  THE
CORE OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE BRITISH AND
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.  WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES.
 
A HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT AND ITS EFFECTS COVER A LARGE AREA. DO
NOT FOCUS ONLY ON THE TRACK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER ISLANDS WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ST. MAARTEN
RECENTLY REPORTED GUSTS TO 61 MPH...98 KPH. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  983 MB...29.03 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF
JOSE.  HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
 
TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.
 
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...17.5 N... 62.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
AST.
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT74 KNHC.
 
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