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BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOSE ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST WED OCT 20 1999

...JOSE VERY NEAR ST. MAARTEN IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT...BARBUDA...
NEVIS...ST. KITTS...ST EUSTATIUS...SABA...DUTCH ST MAARTEN...
ANGUILLA... THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR FRENCH ST. MARTIN AND
ST. BARTHELEMY.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED 
NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  63.0 WEST OR VERY NEAR ST.
MAARTEN IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

JOSE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE CORE OF JOSE OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.  THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER 
THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.  WEATHER SHOULD
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES.

A HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT AND ITS EFFECTS COVER A LARGE AREA. DO
NOT FOCUS ONLY ON THE TRACK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER ISLANDS WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  AT 8 PM...
ST. BARTHELEMY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 69 MPH... 100 KPH...
WITH GUSTS TO 89 MPH....145 KPH.  AT 10 PM...ST. MAARTEN REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 51 MPH...82 KPH...WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH...113 KPH.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS  990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF
JOSE.  HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
 
TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...17.8 N... 63.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
100 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
AST...THURSDAY.
 
GUINEY/PASCH
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT74 KNHC.
 
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