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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SAT NOV 13 1999

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
 
AT 4 PM EST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  81.5 WEST OR ABOUT 185
MILES...300 KM...SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.  THIS POSITION IS
BASED ON DATA FROM A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT THIS
AFTERNOON.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR  6 MPH ... 9 KM/HR...
AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEPRESSION IS AN AREA OVER
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...EXTENDING TO NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND TO
NEAR JAMAICA.  RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION. 
 
REPEATING THE 4 PM EST POSITION...16.5 N... 81.5 W.  MOVEMENT TOWARD
...SOUTH NEAR  6 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.  MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 PM EST.
 
LAWRENCE
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
  
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