HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST TUE NOV 16 1999
 
...LENNY REGAINS CATEGORY 2 STATUS ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO BEATA
TO CABO ENGANO.  A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH
COASTS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
 
HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
 
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  71.5 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES...410
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
 
LENNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR PUERTO RICO OR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS AS THE
CENTER APPROACHES THE WARNED AREA.  THIS MAKES LENNY A CATEGORY 2
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
WAS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. 
MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS OVER WATER AT THIS TIME BUT WILL
LIKELY BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO LATER
TODAY.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER IN
THE WARNED AREA.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...15.2 N... 71.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 971 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
AST.
 
BEVEN
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
 
NNNN