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HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST TUE NOV 16 1999

...LENNY REACHES 115 MPH...BECOMES THE FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE
SEASON...HEADING FOR THE ISLANDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FOLLOWING ISLANDS BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS...DUTCH ST.
MAARTEN...ST. EUSTATIUS...SABA...AND FOR ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST.
KITTS.  THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR MONTSERRAT...BARBUDA AND
ANTIGUA AT THIS TIME.
 
THE FRENCH GOVERNMENT MAY ISSUE A HURRICANE WATCH LATER TODAY FOR
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS UNDER THEIR RESPONSIBILITY.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM
PUNTA PALENQUE ON THE SOUTH COAST TO SABANA DE LA MAR ON THE NORTH
COAST.  AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WERE
DISCONTINUED FOR THE REST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  68.2 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES...380
KM...SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
 
LENNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE NEARING
THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE WEATHER
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORSEN THIS EVENING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THIS MAKES LENNY A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  STRONGER WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED
IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS AND OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING
HARBORS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
 
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
965 MB...28.50 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE.  SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS BANDS OF HEAVY SQUALLS ALREADY SPREADING
OVER PUERTO RICO. 

SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.  
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER IN
THE WARNED AREA.
 
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...15.8 N... 68.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
AST.
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
 
 
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