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HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST WED NOV 17 1999

...CORRECTION FOR PUERTO RICO WARNING SECTION AND WIND SECTION... 

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY LASHING THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...
 
AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO 
RICO WEST OF A PONCE-MANATI LINE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF A PONCE-MANATI LINE
INCLUDING SAN JUAN.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMEY...
ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT
...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
 
ALL INTERESTS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WEST OF A PONCE-
MANATI LINE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
 
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  64.1 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...
115 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MAARTEN IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
 
LENNY HAS MOVED LITTLE THIS EVENING HOWEVER...A GENERAL NORTHEAST
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME THURSDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING THE
CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY ACROSS THE WARNING AREA
TONIGHT.  WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE EVENING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING
HARBORS.  STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.  LENNY IS STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.  REPORTS RELAYED TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FROM AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS ON VIRGIN GORDA IN THE BRITISH 
VIRGIN ISLANDS RECENTLY OBSERVED A GUST TO 98 MPH...158 KPH.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE.  THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
 
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...17.7 N... 64.1 W.  MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.  MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.
 
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM AST AND 3 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST...THURSDAY.
 
GUINEY
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
 
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