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HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999

...LENNY STILL NEARLY STATIONARY...NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MAINLAND PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.
BARTHELEMEY ...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS ...ST.KITTS...
NEVIS...MONTSERRAT ...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...60
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MAARTEN.
 
LENNY IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...A SLOW EAST-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST TRACK
SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE 
HURRICANE OVER THE ISLANDS OF SABA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA
TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING HARBORS.
STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
EVEN THOUGH LENNY HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY...IT IS STILL A
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.  REPORTS FROM SABA INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE
GUSTING TO 98 MPH...157 KPH. 
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  952 MB...28.11 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE.  THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
 
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...17.8 N... 63.6 W.  MOVEMENT
NEARLY STATIONARY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.  MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 952 MB.
 
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM AST AND 3 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST.
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
 
 
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