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HURRICANE LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU NOV 18 1999

...LENNY WREAKING HAVOC ON ST. MAARTEN AND ADJACENT ISLANDS...
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...
FRENCH ST. MARTIN...ST.BARTHELEMEY ...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS ...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT ...ANTIGUA...AND
BARBUDA.
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  63.1 WEST...VERY NEAR ST. MAARTEN.
 
LENNY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE DAY BUT A SLOW
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT.  THIS TRACK SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE OVER THE ISLANDS OF
SABA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THERE ARE REPORTS OF SEVERE DAMAGE IN ST. MAARTEN WHERE HURRICANE
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AT LEAST FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE PREVAILED DURING MOST OF THE
DAY. 
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST
FACING HARBORS.  STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
 
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 966 MB...28.52 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE.  THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
 
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...18.1 N... 63.1 W.  MOVEMENT
NEARLY STATIONARY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.  MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
AST.
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
 
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