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TROPICAL STORM LENNY ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST FRI NOV 19 1999
 
...LENNY LINGERS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...
AND BARBUDA.  ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...ALL WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LENNY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  61.8 WEST.  THIS
POSITION IS NEAR ANTIGUA.

LENNY IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR  3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. 
A SLOW EAST-SOUTHEAST TO EASTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY  AND
IT COULD BE QUITE SOME TIME BEFORE THE HEAVY RAIN AND STORM-FORCE
WINDS MOVE AWAY FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR  70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...EVEN HIGHER IN THE
MOUNTAINS...COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BEFORE
LENNY MOVES AWAY.  THESE RAINS POSE A RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH DANGEROUS LARGE BATTERING WAVES...HAS BEEN EXPECTED NEAR WHERE
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE BLOWING ONSHORE.  THIS FLOODING IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY. 
 
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...17.1 N... 61.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST SOUTHEAST NEAR  3 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
70 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
AST...SATURDAY.
 
LAWRENCE
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT71 KNHC.
 
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