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HURRICANE LENNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  19B
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
3 AM AST THU NOV 18 1999

...CORRECT MOTION IN REPEAT SECTION...

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY DRIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CULEBRA...VIEQUES...
THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCH ST. MAARTEN...FRENCH ST. MARTIN...
ST. BARTHELEMEY...ANGUILLA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST.KITTS...
NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...AND BARBUDA.
 
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EAST OF A PONCE-MANATI 
LINE INCLUDING SAN JUAN.
 
ALL INTERESTS ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WEST OF A PONCE-
MANATI LINE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
 
AT 3 AM AST...0700Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE LENNY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  63.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...
85 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MAARTEN IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
 
LENNY HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. A GENERAL
NORTHEAST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY. THIS TRACK WILL
BRING THE CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA TONIGHT.  

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER UNPROTECTED SOUTH AND WEST FACING
HARBORS.  STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. LENNY IS STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 
UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. RECENT OBSERVATIONS RECEIVED AT THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INCLUDE A WIND GUST TO 70 MPH AT ST.
THOMAS AND A WIND GUST TO 62 MPH AT ST. MAARTEN.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE.  THESE RAINS
CAN PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  SAN JUAN
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER
IN THE WARNED AREA.
 
REPEATING THE 3 AM AST POSITION...17.7 N... 63.8 W.  MOVEMENT...
DRIFTING EASTWARD.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.  MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.

BEVEN
 
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