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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 09 2000
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED THIS EVENING...EXCEPT THAT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
FROM THE NRL WEB PAGE WAS REQUIRED TO FIND THE CENTER. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 55 TO 77 KT DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY...AND I HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND KEPT ALBERTO AT
65 KT.
THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED A BIT MORE AS ALBERTO MOVES PAST THE
LARGE UPPER LOW AND IS NOW 320/20. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS
THE SAME AS BEFORE...AND SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED. TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A
NORTHWEST MOTION FOR 24-36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING WELL ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE. AS ALBERTO MOVES AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW...SOUTHERLY
SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH AND SOME INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK HAS ALBERTO PASSING WELL EAST OF
BERMUDA...RESIDENTS OF THE ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THE STORM UNTIL IT HAS SAFELY PASSED.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0300Z 25.7N 53.5W 65 KTS
12HR VT 10/1200Z 27.9N 55.5W 70 KTS
24HR VT 11/0000Z 30.3N 57.4W 75 KTS
36HR VT 11/1200Z 32.9N 58.4W 80 KTS
48HR VT 12/0000Z 35.0N 58.5W 85 KTS
72HR VT 13/0000Z 39.0N 56.0W 85 KTS
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