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TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE AUG 15 2000
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 180/07. THE GFDL...UKMET...AND
NOGAPS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT...CONTINUING THE TRACK IN AN
ANTICYCLONIC LOOP AROUND A HIGH ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...AND AN UPDATE OF...THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
EVEN THOUGH ALBERTO IS PRETTY MUCH DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION...
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND A SHIP REPORT KEEP THE WIND SPEED
AT 45 KNOTS. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE STORM OVER SLIGHTLY
WARMER SSTS AND THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND SPEED
THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0900Z 37.8N 38.4W 45 KTS
12HR VT 15/1800Z 37.0N 39.0W 45 KTS
24HR VT 16/0600Z 36.5N 40.5W 40 KTS
36HR VT 16/1800Z 36.0N 42.0W 40 KTS
48HR VT 17/0600Z 35.7N 43.5W 40 KTS
72HR VT 18/0600Z 35.5N 47.0W 40 KTS
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