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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 64
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2000
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/04. THE 18Z AVIATION MODEL
CONTINUES A SLOW MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF THE HURRICANE BLOCKING ITS PROGRESS. THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS
ARE FASTER...WITH A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...ERODING
THE RIDGE AND CAUSING AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE EXTREMES AND DOES
ACCELERATE THE FORWARD SPEED TO 22 KNOTS BY 48 HOURS.
THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES GIVE 90 KNOTS. SSTS WELL BELOW 20
DEG C BY 48 HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE WEAKENING AND A TRANSITION
TO AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0300Z 36.7N 48.1W 90 KTS
12HR VT 20/1200Z 37.4N 48.0W 90 KTS
24HR VT 21/0000Z 38.5N 47.9W 85 KTS
36HR VT 21/1200Z 40.5N 47.2W 80 KTS
48HR VT 22/0000Z 42.5N 46.5W 65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 23/0000Z 50.0N 40.0W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
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