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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 67
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 20 2000
HURRICANE ALBERTO HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KT IS MAINTAINED
BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 80 TO 90 KT FROM SAB AND
TAFB. OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/5. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY. ALBERTO REMAINS CAUGHT IN THE BLOCKING
RIDGE PATTERN TO THE EAST...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE MORE TO
THE NORTHEAST BY 24 HOURS WHEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES MOVES EAST AND GRADUALLY PICKS UP THE SYSTEM.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ALONG THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST TRACKS...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND
UKMET MODELS.
ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH 36 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER COLDER WATER AND RAPIDLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/2100Z 37.9N 47.7W 85 KTS
12HR VT 21/0600Z 38.8N 47.5W 75 KTS
24HR VT 21/1800Z 40.6N 46.9W 70 KTS
36HR VT 22/0600Z 43.7N 45.3W 60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 22/1800Z 48.5N 41.5W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 23/1800Z 59.5N 31.0W 45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
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