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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 68
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 20 2000
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS A LITTLE COLDER THAN EARLIER.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 85 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/5...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK
PHILOSOPHY...SAVE FOR A SMALL RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENT BASED ON THE NEW
INITIAL MOTION. ALBERTO SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST
BY 24 HOURS WHEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
MOVES EAST AND GRADUALLY PICKS UP THE SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED.
ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER VERY MUCH COLDER WATER AND BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL. BY 72 HOURS THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME ABSORBED BY A
LARGER SCALE LOW.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0300Z 38.1N 47.4W 85 KTS
12HR VT 21/1200Z 38.9N 47.0W 75 KTS
24HR VT 22/0000Z 40.8N 46.0W 70 KTS
36HR VT 22/1200Z 44.6N 43.9W 60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 23/0000Z 50.0N 39.0W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 24/0000Z ...ABSORBED...
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