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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 70
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON AUG 21 2000
ALBERTO CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A LARGE...45 N MI DIAMETER...EYE FILLED
WITH LOW CLOUDS. TAKING THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
GIVES ABOUT 75 KNOTS FOR THE CURRENT WIND SPEED. MUCH COOLER WATERS
SHOULD BRING ABOUT WEAKENING AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE LOSING
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TOMORROW. ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
ABSORBED INTO A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES AT 020/5. THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE
ACCELERATED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY INCREASING FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE
OF A LARGE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOLUTION GIVEN BY THE NCEP
GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH SHOULD HANDLE SUCH SYSTEMS QUITE WELL.
WIND RADII HAVE BEEN MADE HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC LATER IN THE
PERIOD...CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 39.3N 47.1W 75 KTS
12HR VT 22/0000Z 40.7N 46.4W 70 KTS
24HR VT 22/1200Z 43.8N 44.7W 65 KTS
36HR VT 23/0000Z 48.0N 42.0W 55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 23/1200Z 53.0N 38.0W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 24/1200...ABSORBED
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